The financial crisis has produced no shortage of news media references to the Great Depression. Reuters News has a slideshow this week, for example, called “Ghosts of 1929.” All the talk of Dustbowl Okies and Folkies has spurred its share of stories comparing that era to 2008, including this Reuters story by yours truly.

Harvard historian Niall Ferguson contributes the latest entry in the latest edition of Time magazine, which the magazine teases on its cover with the headline, “No, this isn’t Depression 2.0. How history can help us avoid it.” The story is a must-read for anyone who remotely cares about history and money.

But… is Time having its breadline and eating it too? We ask because the headline on the cover that teases Ferguson’s article tells us it’s not the Depression — just beneath a full-cover image of the urban poor in a breadline circa 1930-something. The big headline on the page reads: “The New Hard Times.” Maybe — but not yet.

On a separate note, and speaking of soup, Campbell Soup Co said in September that it would expand its soup plant in Maxton, North Carolina, allowing it to make a line for making ready-to-serve soups and carton-packaged broths. We’re not sayin’… we’re just sayin’.

What’s the true mystery in the ImClone takeover saga? The final price tag.

When ImClone alluded to its “mystery bidder” on Monday, it said a large pharmaceutical company had made an offer to acquire the company for $70 per share but needed more time to conduct due diligence. ImClone said the bidder would either make a firm offer by the end of the day on Wednesday or withdraw — at which point its name would be revealed.

Wednesday came and went, with Eli Lilly being reported by Reuters and others as the “mystery bidder,” but ImClone only issued a short statement confirming that a formal offer had been made — this time without mentioning the price. The name of the bidder would be revealed when negotiations were completed, ImClone said.

But wait? Why not reconfirm the $70 per share price or give the new offer? Investors wondered on Thursday whether the formal bid, made after reviewing ImClone’s books and not subject to financing, was actually lower than $70 per share ImClone previously stated.

Shares of ImClone hovered at $65.70 at midday on Thursday as investors hedged whether they’d ever see $70 a share, traders said. ImClone has already rebuffed Bristol-Myers’s sweetened offer of $62 per share for the 83 percent of ImClone it does not already own.

“A $70 offer represents a 51-percent premium to (ImClone’s) closing price prior to first acquisition announcement and corresponds to a high end of premiums paid historically in similar acquisitions,” said Rodman & Renshaw analyst Michael King.

“We view the $70 per share offer to be close enough to a final offer and presenting little upside to (ImClone’s) closing price (on Wednesday) of $65.35; hence we recommend staying on the sidelines for now. Further, we do not envision a materially higher counter offer from Bristol,” King said.

Barclays Capital analyst C. Anthony Butler said any offer significantly above Bristol-Myers’s rejected $62-per-share bid would be risky unless the buyer gained control of 11F8 — the follow-on product to ImClone’s cancer drug Erbitux. Bristol-Myers believes it has the rights to that product, but ImClone disputes that.

“We assume the critical component of any deal reached hinges upon the rights for 11F8 — a legal battle is likely to ensue,” Butler said.

A $70 per share acquisition of ImClone would not be beneficial to the shareholders of Eli Lilly, Bristol-Myers or any other potential buyer, according to UBS analyst Roopesh Patel.

At that price, a buyer “would be paying full value, without risk adjustment, for (ImClone’s) inline/pipeline drugs … and taking on substantial execution risk,” Patel said.

Patel’s estimated value for ImClone? $64 per share.

(Thanks to reader Bob, who caught the timeline errors in our first entry)

Eli Lilly shareholders must have an itchy rash on their heads. Their management is set to pay a hefty $70 per share for cancer drug maker ImClone to rival a sweetened $62 per share bid from Bristol Myers that mercurial investor Carl Icahn has apparently whipped out. The mystery bidder has already completed due diligence and has the cash on hand to manage the deal. Analysts, generally unconvinced that this is a great strategic deal for Lilly. Shareholders could be less likely Lilly has a stomach for a bidding war if Bristol comes back. 

Icahn had called Bristol-Myers’ offer, which was increased by $2 per share, “absurd”, and ImClone says the unnamed suitor, who wants to remain shadowy until negotiations are over, does not need financing to put together the $6.1 billion-topping offer.

It seems fitting that the takeover of ImClone should be shrouded in intrigue. Founder Sam Waksal and his friend style icon Martha Stewart went to jail for lying to investigators over suspicious trading in its stock, and Carl Icahn brings his own mercurial blend of color and drama to the scene. One might find it poetic that the identity of this bidder is another stodgy old drug company rather than a media mogul, a style celeb or a flamboyant financier.

Deals of the day:

* British software firm Axon Group is dropping its recommendation of a takeover bid from India’s Infosys Technologies in favor of a higher offer from HCL Technologies , Axon said.

* Commonwealth Bank of Australia denied a media report that it had offered to buy the BankWest business of British bank HBOS, though analysts believed the banks could be in talks.

* Japan’s Fujitsu is in talks with Western Digital and others on the sale of its money-losing hard drive business, a company source said, in a deal one newspaper estimated could be worth $945 million.

* British advertising group WPP said its offer for British market researcher Taylor Nelson Sofres was final and would not be increased.

* Solar products maker Suntech Power said it formed a joint venture with MMA Renewable Ventures, forming Gemini Solar Development, and acquired EI Solutions, a California-based commercial solar system integration company. 

* Singapore-listed Thai Beverage said it is making an offer for the remaining 56 percent of Thai food firm Oishi at 37 baht per share, totaling 3.89 billion baht ($114.6 million).

* Australian zinc miner CBH Resources made another offer to buy rival Perilya, worth as much as A$60 million ($47 million), seeking to link up their nearby mines.

The Wall Street Journal recently stopped carrying the Breakingviews business analysis column in favor of its expanded in-house Heard on the Street column, but Breakingviews still managed to crash the party in Wednesday’s paper. In true merry-prankster mode, the Breakingviews ad urges readers of Heard on the Street to think about what they’re missing and how to get a new fix. What the ad doesn’t mention is that The New York Times picked up Breakingviews for its business section just after the WSJ dropped it. Such a move would be a real paper cut.

Shares of HBOS and Lloyds TSB got a boost this morning in London as it appeared Lloyds was less likely to try to renegotiate its takeover of HBOS. Standard Life Investments, a top investor in Lloyds and HBOS, supports the planned takeover under the original terms, a person close to the investment firm said, and analysts suggested political and regulatory pressure would force the deal through, despite its chunky discount to the indicated offer price.

BBC Business Editor Robert Peston writes:

So if you believe that the terms of the deal won’t and can’t be changed, the current HBOS share price is an opportunity to buy £10 notes for £6.60.

That looks too good to be true. And the normal investing rule is that if it looks too good to be true, then don’t touch it even if you’re in a radiation-proof suit.

DealZone postulated yesterday that other big deals could head the same way because of falling prices – think Bank of America’s bid for Merrill Lynch. HBOS’ and Lloyds’ share price puts that deal at a 31 percent discount to its original price tag, compared with a discount of 16 percent for the Merrill/BofA deal.

The ban on short sales in the U.S. is making it tough to gauge just how much doubt there really is about that deal, though its current discount – even after yesterday’s rally – would normally raise eyebrows. That ban is set to expire tomorrow, but can be extended if the SEC deems it necessary for a maximum of 30 days in total.

If the government sees itself as being in the business of salvaging takeovers of distressed banks, a position it bolstered by backing Citigroup’s takeover of Wachovia on Monday, might the SEC seek to keep the ban in place for more than a month?

Deals of the Day:

** Anglo-Swiss miner Xstrata Plc dropped immediate plans for a $10 billion bid for No. 3 platinum producer Lonmin Plc but set the scene for a later deal by scooping up Lonmin shares as they fell.

** Iceland’s troubled banking sector witnessed further upheaval as Straumur-Burdaras said it would pay 380 million euros ($537 million) to buy assets from Landsbanki .

** Hewlett-Packard Co has agreed to buy LeftHand Networks Inc, a network storage provider, for $360 million in cash.

** Video-game retailer GameStop said it will acquire French video-game retailer Micromania from private equity fund L Capital for $700 million, including debt, to gain a presence in France.

** Struggling Finnish technology firm Elektrobit said it had agreed to sell its WiMax baseband software assets to Nokia Siemens Networks [NSN.UL] as part of its new restructuring plan.

** Royal Dutch Shell is poised to take a large stake in its Russian partner company Sibir Energy before the end of this year, the Financial Times reported.

** British instruments and controls maker Spectris Plc is buying LDS Test & Measurement from SPX Corp for $102 million, on a debt and cash-free basis, the company said.

** Nidec Corp <6594.OS>, the world’s largest maker of tiny motors used in hard disk drives, said it would buy a majority of Fuji Electric Holdings’ <6504.T> industrial motor unit for nearly 10 billion yen ($94 million).

** Indian vaccines maker Panacea Biotec Ltd

will invest $13.1 million in U.S.-based PharmAthene Inc

for a near-20 percent stake, the firms said.