Curiouser and curiouser

The rabbit character from Alice in Wonderland poses next to a mural artwork at entrepreneur Marc Ecko's anti-sundance party, with a Mad Hatter Tea Party theme, during the 2008 Sundance Film Festival in Park City, Utah January 20, 2008. The 20-feet mural depicts paparazzi with actual cameras built into the art. REUTERS/Fred Prouser (UNITED STATES)Seen with a post-bubble eye, securitisation is a bit of a looking glass world. Lewis Carroll would probably have appreciated “synthetic” obligations not built on real assets, near-meaningless credit ratings, and legal documents that fail to do what they are designed for.

So spare a thought for holders of asset-backed bonds who have had to take a trip down the rabbit hole.

Some of the worst-affected bonds are commercial-mortgage backed securities (CMBS), which in Europe have suffered largely because of the plunging value of the property used as security for the debt.

The fate of these bonds is now increasingly in the hands of a small group of secretive administrators, known as “special servicers”, as I wrote earlier.

In the wonderland envisaged by the creators of these deals, the special servicer’s job would amount to little more than a few tweaks here and there. But in reality, the special servicer is confronted by situations with few rules, no precedents and contradictory documents, as well as ranks of competing creditors spread out across multiple tranches. The diagrams explaining the financial structures are works of mind-bending complexity.

So it should not come as a surprise that this has meant some restructuring situations involving CMBS transactions have dragged on as investors struggle to reach a deal.

Special servicers need to make sense of it all, and quickly, as more CMBS loans are likely to end up in the hands of the special servicers. That is, unless someone can find a potion to boost real estate prices. After all, the days of investors believing six impossible things before breakfast are probably over.

Delphi’s Race To Redemption

Delphi may close to the finish line, bringing to a close its four-year-long bankruptcy. The Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation says it will take over the pension plans of 70,000 Delphi workers and retirees. That can’t be anything but good news for potential bidders for Delphi assets.

Talks between Delphi and its lenders have been progressing toward a compromise deal that would supersede a bid by private equity firm Platinum Equity favored by GM and the U.S. Treasury, sources have told us. What else might it take to get Delphi to the finish line? The next few days will tell if enough has been done.

Last night the federal judge hearing the case postponed the auction of Delphi’s assets until Friday. A hearing to approve the reorganization plan (or sale) is now scheduled for next Wednesday. Delphi said it expects to announce the outcome of the auction perhaps by Monday. What’s a few more days after years in the tank?

Deals du Jour

National Australia Bank is selling new shares to raise up to US$2.25 billion to help it scout for acquisitions, it says. The fundraising will also be used as a buffer against rising bad debts, but the unexpected share sale by Australia’s largest lender will also allow it “to pursue value creating opportunities,” according to its CEO.

Just last month, NAB bought most of British insurer Aviva’s Australian businesses for A$825 million to expand in wealth management.

In other deal news reported by Reuters and other media:

Procter & Gamble is in advanced talks to sell its prescription-drug business with several parties, including specialty drugmaker Warner Chilcott and private equity firm Cerberus Capital Management, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

China’s Tengzhong, the surprise leading bidder for the General Motors’ Hummer brand, is likely to establish an offshore investment vehicle to facilitate its purchase, a company official said.

A group of computer memory chip makers led by Taiwan’s Nanya Tech, Inotera and U.S.-based Micron is considering acquiring smaller rival Winbond, a local newspaper reports. Click here for the Reuters story.

California Finally Grows Up

California’s dysfunctional government has finally reached a budget compromise: The state will chop $15 billion out of its budget and scrounge up another $11 billion in one-time accounting gimmickry — and thus close its entire $26 billion budget shortfall

Time for a New Mortgage Plan

The general consensus these days is that Obama’s mortgage modification plan has failed.  It’s too complex, there’s too much resistance from banks, and there are not enough resources in place to rapidly restructure existing terms.So, what’s the answer