Tandberg’s last stand

Cisco says it has 84 percent of the Norwegian videoconferencing company and is more likely to pull the offer than raise it. And the giant U.S. router maker will probably settle for something less than the 90 percent it had said it would need to trigger the takeover.

Analysts say Cisco will gain operational control of Tandberg at the current acceptance level, limiting the influence of minority owners. Cisco is extremely acquisitive and has a premier class of dealmakers on its M&A staff. The company’s brain trust checkmated Tandberg with four moves: three deadline extensions and an increase in the offer price of 10 percent. That appears to have been as effective as it needed to be. The original offer was rejected by more than 90 percent of Tandberg shareholders.

Tandberg holds 40 percent of the mid-tier market for videoconferencing, according to Wainhouse Research. Cisco CEO John Chambers has said online videoconferencing is a key growth area that is on the brink of more widespread adoption. High-quality, real-time videoconferencing can help companies cut travel costs, and Cisco believes it can do more, such as helping businesses like retailers, banks and hospitals launch services from remote locations.

DealZone Daily

Chinese bank ICBC is in talks to buy a stake in Taiwan’s Cathay Financial, sources say, in a deal that could be worth more than $3 billion.The talks come amid an easing of cross-strait relations between the former enemies, in hopes of boosting both economies and political ties.

In other M&A news reported by Reuters and other media on Wednesday: 

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Taiwan financial conglomerate Fubon Financial are among the bidders for Morgan Stanley’s stake in Chinese investment bank CICC, sources say, in a deal that could be worth more than $1 billion.

Government-controlled Brazilian bank Caixa Economica Federal agrees to pay $429 million for a 49 percent voting stake in commercial bank Banco Panamericano to expand in consumer lending.

Takeda Pharmaceutical, Japan’s largest drugmaker, may look for acquisitions in India to boost its presence in Asia’s third-largest economy, the Financial Express reports.

Diedrich Coffee battle seen far from over

There’s a lot of fuss lately over a coffee company with a market capitalization of just $190 million.

Peet’s Coffee & Tea Inc again raised its bid for Diedrich Coffee, this time to $32.50 a share, besting the $32 per share, all cash offer from Green Mountain Coffee.

Diedrich’s shares are trading above the offer prices at $33.99, up 87 cents, or 2.63 percent, suggesting that investors expect another bid from Green Mountain.

Stifel Nicolaus analysts said they expected Diedrich to declare the latest Peet’s Coffee offer as superior, prompting Green Mountain to come back with yet another bid.

The analysts said it would have to be “meaningfully higher” than the current Peet’s cash-and-stock offer given the potential for upside if Peet’s stock rises. 

Plus, it would have to add in a premium to top Peet’s ability to close the deal three to six months sooner than Green Mountain, with no extension for Federal Trade Commission Review review for Hart-Scott-Rodino anti-trust clearance, the analysts said. 

Diedrich makes and sells K-Cup refills for Green Mountain Coffee’s single-cup Keurig brewer system. 

If Green Mountain acquired Diedrich, the two companies could control 95 percent of the K-Cup market and roughly 82-85 percent of the single-serve or cartridge market, a source familiar with the situation said.

Green Mountain tried to address the concerns about marketshare in a statement on Tuesday.
“The coffee and coffee maker businesses are very large and highly fragmented and (Green Mountain’s) sales constitute just a small fraction in each,” Green Mountain said in a statement.

It depends on how the FTC defines the coffee market and whether it views the single-serve market as distinct market. The FTC has looked at even more narrow markets. In 2002, the FTC sought a preliminary injunction to block the acquisition of Claussen Pickle Co by High, Muse, Tate & Furst’s Vlasic Pickle Co, saying it reduce competition in the refrigerated pickle market.

If the FTC looks at the single-serve coffee market as its own, unique market, Green Mountain could be in a pickle, analysts said. Green Mountain was not immediately available to comment.