If you were all twitchy with anticipation about Comcast’s NBC Universal deal, just wait for parts two and three! The gathering storm over the merger in Washington and other political power points not only promises to be more riveting, but the rights to part three are already being sold to a wave of media mergers hanging on the outcome.

As Anupreeta Das reports, media dealmaking could pick up if regulators impose minimal conditions on the NBC Universal transaction. But U.S. regulatory scrutiny is expected to be heavy, and the deal could take more than a year to be cleared. The LegalTimes blog notes that even the beauty contest among regulators hoping to oversee the process promises to have many twists and turns.

That might sound like a long wait, but it’s not likely to stop M&A lawyers from booking lunches and logging hours to get the balls in place to roll if the deal goes through. That kind or pressure could also work its way behind the scenes in Washington, where lobbyists will be armed with the argument that the merger will save capitalism as we know it by reigniting the dealmaking powderkeg of the early part of this century.

Highlights from this week’s Thomson Reuters Investment Banking Scorecard:

COMCAST-NBC UNIVERSAL LIFTS MEDIA M&A
The proposed combination of Comcast and NBC Universal into a 51:49 joint venture brings the announced volume of mergers in the media and entertainment sector to $79.7 billion, a 31% decrease from last year at this time.
The transaction is valued at $14.4 billion, which signifies GE’s net asset contribution and ranks as the second biggest transaction in the sector this year, after DirecTV Group’s $14.5 billion merger with Liberty Entertainment in May.  Overall, worldwide M&A totals $1.9 trillion, down 33% compared to 2008 levels.

SECURITIZATIONS PULL AHEAD OF 2008 LEVELS
The volume of new asset-backed and mortgage backed securities total $498.9 billion for year-to-date 2009, a 3% increase over 2008 levels.  After a nearly 85% decline in 2008, the market for securitizations of residential mortgages, credit card receivables and auto receivables has slowly returned aided by US government guarantee programs.
Issuers in the United States account for 38% of overall activity this year, followed by UK-based issuers with 15%.

ASIA PACIFIC M&A DOWN 11%
Asia Pacific M&A activity totals $367.5 billion for year-to-date 2009, an 11% decrease from 2008 levels.  Consolidation in the financial, high technology and energy and power sectors accounts for 45% of announced deal volume this year.
High technology merger activity has more than doubled in the region, while activity in the telecommunications and materials sectors has seen declines of 77% and 45%, respectively.

Lloyd Blankfein has very much been a man in the news lately, sometimes to good effect and sometimes not so much. In the past few weeks the Goldman Sachs CEO has made headlines by declaring that his firm was “doing God’s work” and, just this week, by suggesting that Goldman probably would have survived without the government largess that was channeled its way at the height of last year’s financial sector meltdown.  Those comments, made in interviews with the Times of London and Vanity Fair, were part of a broad media offensive which has sought to burnish the image of the bank Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi famously described as a blood sucking vampire squid.

It seems surprising, then, that the nearly ubiquitous Blankfein will be absent when Goldman convenes its annual U.S. financial services conference next week, featuring such industry heavyweights as JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon and Blackstone’s Steve Schwarzman, there will be no appearance by Blankfein or any other Goldman senior executive. That’s in sharp contrast to what happens at many top banks when they sponsor conferences; Bank of America’s outgoing CEO Ken Lewis, for example, was keynote speaker at his bank’s financial services conference early last month.

Does this mean Blankfein has said his piece for now and is going to adopt a lower profile going forward? Not necessarily, Goldman says. Blankfein, or whoever the Goldman CEO is at a given time, is never a featured guest at the conference, said Ed Canaday, a spokesman for the bank. “Historically we have not had our CEO or another member of senior management speak at the conference,” he said. “I know it’s different from some other companies but that’s how it’s been done historically.”

Meanwhile Bank of America, which on the initial conference agenda had the initials “TBD” next to its name in the space where other banks listed their CEOs, has dropped out entirely as speculation swirls about who will take the top job at the troubled lender. Given Blankfein is as secure in his job as any CEO of a major bank, perhaps the next Bank of America chief will take a page out of his book and be conspicuously absent from the stage next year.

Comcast’s deal to buy a majority stake in NBC Universal from General Electric should put to rest fears at the cable operator that King Content will kill its business. But even if it becomes a thoroughfare of programming genius, the new venture will still have to convince a skeptical marketplace. The train wreck of Time Warner-AOL threw the idea of new media into financial purgatory.

Just how the venture will wring savings from its disparate businesses and avoid suffocating regulatory scrutiny are issues that could also create Comcastic headaches.  Robert MacMillan points out on our Mediafile blog, with a sensible dose of skepticism, that the new venture is affirming its commitment to local news, in effect, promising to keep the garden hoses pumping even as it primes for a media gusher with big-ticket programming.

Still, while making a new media juggernaut could still turn out to be a pipe dream, Comcast CEO Brian Roberts (pictured above) cannot be faulted for allowing his company to get stuck in a dumb pipe nightmare.

Comcast has finally unveiled its formal announcement that it plans to take control of NBC Universal from General Electric. Public interest groups and various U.S. government types have been tutting and clucking over whether this media mega-deal would be against the national interest, and few doubt that Congress and the administration will want to review this plan in loving detail.

To that extent, Comcast released a memo on Thursday outlining its public commitments. There are a bunch in here, but this old-school journalist wants to point out above all else that the company said it’s committed to preserving and enriching “the output of local news, local public affairs and other public interest programming on NBC O&O (“owned and operated”) stations.”

That’s a mighty strong commitment to make. Let’s hope that it doesn’t do what many radio and TV stations have done for years to satisfy their government-mandated public interest requirements and stick all that stuff on the air at 5 a.m. Sunday morning. Also, how much more money will they provide?

Here, meanwhile, are some of the commitments, straight from the memo. Print them out and tape them to your refrigerator so you can hold Comcast’s feet to the fire later if things don’t work out as planned. I marked parts in bold:

• NBC has a proud history in broadcasting with both NBC and Telemundo. Notwithstanding the turbulence in the current media marketplace and the ongoing threats to the business model of a national broadcast network, the combined company remains committed to continuing to provide free over-the-air television through its 0&0 stations and through local broadcast affiliates across the nation. As we negotiate and renew agreements with our broadcast affiliates, we will continue our cooperative dialogue with our affiliates toward a business model to sustain free over-the-air service that can be workable in the evolving economic and technological environment.
• The NBC owned-and-operated broadcast stations (“0&OS “) have a demonstrated record of quality local programming in major markets around the country. Comcast also has demonstrated its commitment to local programming, including sports and public affairs, and in providing support for public, educational, and government (PEG) access programming. We want to use the combined resources of NBC and Comcast to strengthen localism
• We intend to preserve and enrich the output of local news, local public affairs, and other public interest programming on NBC 0&0 stations.
• Since NBCU was acquired by GE in 1986, the owners have abided by a policy (summarized in a filing with the FCC) of ensuring that the content of NBC’s news and public affairs programming would not be influenced by the non-media interests of General Electric. The combined company will continue these policies with respect to the news programming organizations of all NBCU networks and stations, and will extend these policies to the potential influence of each of the owners. To ensure such independence, the combined companies will continue in effect the position and authority of the NBC News ombudsman to address any issues that may arise.
• Comcast and NBCU have strong track records in children’s programming and children’s issues. The combined company will make an expanded commitment to meeting the viewing needs of children, and the needs of parents to better control their family’s viewing.
• We reaffirm our commitment to provide clear and understandable on-screen TV Ratings information for all covered programming across all networks (broadcast and cable) of the combined company.
• We intend to expand the availability of over-the-air programming to the Hispanic community utilizing a portion of the digital broadcast spectrum of the Telemundo O&O’s (as well as offering it to Telemundo affiliates) to enhance the current programming of Tel em undo and Mun2.
• As a cable operator, Comcast is committed to dealing fairly with all non-affiliated video programmers with whom we do business, and to promoting program diversity. Nearly six out of every seven channels carried by Comcast Cable systems will still be networks unaffiliated with Comcast upon the completion of this transaction.
• We plan to honor all of NBCU’s collective bargaining agreements. We respect NBCU’s
  existing labor-management relationships and expect them to continue following the
  closing of this transaction.

North American food giant Kraft is due to post its offer documents to Cadbury shareholders by Dec. 7, but this latest milestone in the 10 billion pound takeover saga may turn out to be more damp squib than giant Toblerone.

Kraft could indeed post the documents ahead of time as the Times reported this week. With no significant changes to the structure or value of the offer anticipated, the event is unlikely to captivate or move the markets, however.

Keeping the terms exactly the same would be typical behaviour for Kraft, as we said last month here. The company formalised its indicative offer in the hope that no rival bidders would emerge to pressure it to up its bid. Despite Wispas — sorry, whispers — about Hershey, Nestle, and Ferrero, no rival has come forward yet.

For our latest take on Kraft’s long-game pursuit of Cadbury, click here

Cisco says it has 84 percent of the Norwegian videoconferencing company and is more likely to pull the offer than raise it. And the giant U.S. router maker will probably settle for something less than the 90 percent it had said it would need to trigger the takeover.

Analysts say Cisco will gain operational control of Tandberg at the current acceptance level, limiting the influence of minority owners. Cisco is extremely acquisitive and has a premier class of dealmakers on its M&A staff. The company’s brain trust checkmated Tandberg with four moves: three deadline extensions and an increase in the offer price of 10 percent. That appears to have been as effective as it needed to be. The original offer was rejected by more than 90 percent of Tandberg shareholders.

Tandberg holds 40 percent of the mid-tier market for videoconferencing, according to Wainhouse Research. Cisco CEO John Chambers has said online videoconferencing is a key growth area that is on the brink of more widespread adoption. High-quality, real-time videoconferencing can help companies cut travel costs, and Cisco believes it can do more, such as helping businesses like retailers, banks and hospitals launch services from remote locations.

Chinese bank ICBC is in talks to buy a stake in Taiwan’s Cathay Financial, sources say, in a deal that could be worth more than $3 billion.The talks come amid an easing of cross-strait relations between the former enemies, in hopes of boosting both economies and political ties.

In other M&A news reported by Reuters and other media on Wednesday: 

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Taiwan financial conglomerate Fubon Financial are among the bidders for Morgan Stanley’s stake in Chinese investment bank CICC, sources say, in a deal that could be worth more than $1 billion.

Government-controlled Brazilian bank Caixa Economica Federal agrees to pay $429 million for a 49 percent voting stake in commercial bank Banco Panamericano to expand in consumer lending.

Takeda Pharmaceutical, Japan’s largest drugmaker, may look for acquisitions in India to boost its presence in Asia’s third-largest economy, the Financial Express reports.

There’s a lot of fuss lately over a coffee company with a market capitalization of just $190 million.

Peet’s Coffee & Tea Inc again raised its bid for Diedrich Coffee, this time to $32.50 a share, besting the $32 per share, all cash offer from Green Mountain Coffee.

Diedrich’s shares are trading above the offer prices at $33.99, up 87 cents, or 2.63 percent, suggesting that investors expect another bid from Green Mountain.

Stifel Nicolaus analysts said they expected Diedrich to declare the latest Peet’s Coffee offer as superior, prompting Green Mountain to come back with yet another bid.

The analysts said it would have to be “meaningfully higher” than the current Peet’s cash-and-stock offer given the potential for upside if Peet’s stock rises. 

Plus, it would have to add in a premium to top Peet’s ability to close the deal three to six months sooner than Green Mountain, with no extension for Federal Trade Commission Review review for Hart-Scott-Rodino anti-trust clearance, the analysts said. 

Diedrich makes and sells K-Cup refills for Green Mountain Coffee’s single-cup Keurig brewer system. 

If Green Mountain acquired Diedrich, the two companies could control 95 percent of the K-Cup market and roughly 82-85 percent of the single-serve or cartridge market, a source familiar with the situation said.

Green Mountain tried to address the concerns about marketshare in a statement on Tuesday.
“The coffee and coffee maker businesses are very large and highly fragmented and (Green Mountain’s) sales constitute just a small fraction in each,” Green Mountain said in a statement.

It depends on how the FTC defines the coffee market and whether it views the single-serve market as distinct market. The FTC has looked at even more narrow markets. In 2002, the FTC sought a preliminary injunction to block the acquisition of Claussen Pickle Co by High, Muse, Tate & Furst’s Vlasic Pickle Co, saying it reduce competition in the refrigerated pickle market.

If the FTC looks at the single-serve coffee market as its own, unique market, Green Mountain could be in a pickle, analysts said. Green Mountain was not immediately available to comment.